Stop Budgeting for Surprises. Start Planning for Reality.
Discover how 10-year FCI forecasts by Site and System Class transform capital planning from reactive crisis management into strategic foresight—whether you're managing office printers, HVAC systems, or bridge infrastructure.
The $4.2 Million Surprise
June 2021. Board meeting. A mid-sized university's CFO presents the capital budget for the upcoming fiscal year: $1.2 million for routine facility maintenance and equipment replacements. The board approves. Three months later, facilities management comes back with an emergency request: $4.2 million in additional capital needs.
The shocked CFO asks the obvious question: "How did we miss this by 350%?"
The answer was simple but devastating: They had no visibility into what was coming. The emergency requests weren't surprises to the assets—they were surprises to the budget:
- 14 HVAC units at Science Hall, all installed 2002, reaching end-of-life simultaneously: $1.8M
- Campus-wide elevator modernization (equipment at 85%+ lifecycle): $1.3M
- Electrical distribution systems approaching 30-year mark: $750K
- Building envelope repairs (roofs, windows): $350K
The painful irony: Every single failure was 100% predictable. The Science Hall HVAC was installed in 2002—standard 20-year equipment life meant it would expire around 2022. The elevators had documented service lives. The electrical systems were commissioned in 1992. These weren't surprise failures—they were planned obsolescence without planned replacement.
The university scrambled to secure emergency funding, delayed other projects, and paid 30-40% premiums for rush procurements. Worse, the reputational damage with the board lasted years—every subsequent capital request was met with skepticism: "How do we know this isn't another surprise?"
The Magnitude of the Capital Planning Crisis
That university isn't alone. Organizations across North America are lurching from one capital "emergency" to the next:
of facilities organizations report significant budget overruns due to unplanned capital replacements
Average capital planning horizon— less than half the typical equipment lifecycle, ensuring constant "surprises"
$312 billion in deferred capital maintenance across North American institutions—the predictable becoming the unaffordable
Organizations without long-term capital forecasting experience 3-4x more emergency replacements compared to those with predictive planning. Emergency procurements cost 30-50% more than planned replacements. And fewer than 30% of facility managers have visibility beyond 3 years into their capital needs.
Why Traditional Capital Planning Fails
Most organizations approach capital planning with point-in-time condition assessments performed every 3-5 years. The fundamental problems:
"We needed a system that could project 10 years forward, automatically adjusting for asset aging and inflation. We needed to see capital cliffs before we drove off them. We needed to understand capital needs by site, by building, and by system type—so we could plan strategically instead of reacting desperately."
That system exists. It's called FCI Forecasting.
What is FCI Forecasting?
FCI Forecasting projects your Facility Condition Index 10 years into the future by modeling how assets age, when they reach end-of-life, and how deferred maintenance accumulates over time—giving you years of advance warning to plan capital budgets proactively.
Example: 10-Year FCI Forecast by Site
This forecast chart reveals a predictable pattern: FCI deteriorates as assets age and reach end-of-life. The key insight? You see the cliff years before you reach it, allowing proactive budget planning.
Chart shows East Campus hitting Poor condition by 2029—giving you 4 years advance warning to budget $2M+ in capital replacements.
How AssetLab Calculates FCI Forecasts
AssetLab's forecasting engine combines asset lifecycle data, inflation-adjusted replacement values, and predictive aging models to project FCI year by year for the next decade.
Identify Asset End-of-Life Dates
For every asset, AssetLab calculates when it will reach 100% of its expected lifecycle by combining purchase date + expected lifetime.
End-of-Life Year = Purchase Year + Expected LifetimeProject Deferred Maintenance for Each Year
For each forecast year (2025, 2026... 2035), AssetLab sums the inflation-adjusted replacement costs of all assets that will have reached end-of-life by that year.
Calculate FCI for Each Forecast Year
AssetLab divides projected deferred cost by total Current Replacement Value (CRV) to produce FCI for each year—showing exactly how facility condition deteriorates over time.
FCIyear = Deferred Costyear / Total CRVThis FCI score tells executives: "By 2029, 16% of East Campus asset value will be past end-of-life and need replacement."
Visualize Trends & Identify Capital Cliffs
AssetLab charts FCI projections for all 10 years, color-coded by condition threshold—making capital cliffs visually obvious and giving finance teams data to justify multi-year capital reserve strategies.
Compare FCI trajectories across campuses—see which locations deteriorate fastest and need priority investment.
Track HVAC, Electrical, Plumbing, etc. separately—identify systemic equipment aging patterns across all facilities.
Why FCI Forecasting Transforms Capital Planning
See Your Capital Future Today
AssetLab's 10-year FCI forecasts by Site and System Class give you predictive visibility into capital needs, eliminate budget surprises, and help you plan strategically instead of reacting desperately. From office printers to HVAC systems to bridge infrastructure—AssetLab tracks it all, and forecasts it all.